Open Papa Predictions for 2008
Linux Mini-laptops
Beginning just after "Tax Time" there will be a run on OLPCs and ASUS Eee PCs. Once computer users are let out of the MS-Box they will quickly realize that the power and features of these and other small form laptops is perfectly suited to their everyday computing needs.
Real prediction: Enthusiastic reception of the Linux based mini-laptop will cause a landslide acceptance of Linux on the Desktop.
Bonus link: Noahpad
Google Tribulations
Coming under the privacy watchers fearful gaze Google will begin to reveal what will come to be known as the gShiner, the GoOgle - the Google blackeye. I view this as an unfortunate side effect of Google's main mission - to acquire and provide information upon request. Privacy watchers will insist that it is too much personal information. Google will suffer a blackeye for doing well exactly what it is used for...by everyone - vanity searches.
Real Prediction: Google, to stay competitive in the 'Information Display' market will release a new AI based criteria parser that significantly improves the average user's search experience. By implementing a more 'common-language' parser Google will be able to reduce the returned 'hits' to a much more succinct and manageable number.
Microsoft will rush MinWin to market...
Realizing that Papa's Prediction #1 is bearing down on them like a run-away freight train Microsoft will begin to do what they do best... FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt). Claiming that their 'small foot print, fully Windows compatible' version of MiniWini (MeanieWeenie) is just around the corner Microsoft will attempt to undermine common sense and the public's realization that surfing and internet are the only things they really do with any PC.
Real Prediction: Microsoft will implode! With revenue falling at a rate of 32 feet per second squared the Redmond Giant will come tumbling down the economic bean stalk at breakneck speed.
The real Real Prediction: Microsoft will slowly begin to release the Linux based versions of its "popular" applications. And foolishly try to sell them at bloated MS-Prices.
re: MS
ReplyDeleteI think you must have missed MS' decision to not charge any licensing fees for server 2008 - there's a change coming over MS - they are starting to see ways they can beat LAMP and do it fairly (or so) - MS share of server software is climbing faster than LAMP is declining.
Doug:
ReplyDeleteVery interesting proposition... but, and I believe it is a big but... (1.) that is akin to giving away one Lamborghini while continuing to over-charge for underpowered Joe Average family cars (Vista in particular). (2.) This is another blatant attempt by MS to entice folks to come crawling back into the proprietary "Box". Why not make a good product instead of spending so much time and effort locking folks into a poor one.
On a curious note, your observation that 'MS is climbing faster than LAMP is declining' ... I am sure you are absolutely right... IF MS increased by 1 and LAMP decreased by 0 your statement would hold true. How many must MS increase to achieve parity, let alone surprass LAMP? Further, during that time how many more new LAMP instances will be brought on-line.
I am sorry but your observation is empty.
I took the liberty of checking your 'profile'. You offer neither details or a blog site. Are you a real member of the community? Do you represent the interests of the "opinions" you offer?
Regards,
William "Papa" Meloney VII
William
ReplyDeleteYour comment form does not appear to give me a place to put my url when signing in using my gmail account - it is
which community do you refer to? I've been an active blogger for 6 years which any cursory check of Google would easily show. Programming - no I'm not a programmer. Nor, do I work for MS. I'm the sales manager for a large data center and as such I keep tabs on trends in the industry - As of Nov 07 MS server software was running on 35.84% of all servers whereas Apache was running on 49.57%. I was wrong to state that MS was catching up to Apache faster than Apache was sinking. Apache is sinking faster. See the latest graph at http://www.netcraft.com (and no I don't work for them either)
Mea culpa - on many levels...
ReplyDelete1.) You are right, I missed the Server 2008 News - I will stand by my Lamborghini vs. Family Car response though. (More on that elsewhere.)
2.) You are right, MS-IIS is moving forward and LAMP's numbers are declining (per NetWatch.com)
3.) You have been a member of the blogging community for quite some time. ( http://www.thealders.net/blogs/ ) Unfortunately when I clicked on the "Doug" tag of the first comment you left it took me to a nearly blank Blogger Profile page. At the time of my viewing it did not contain your last name or the link to your website - sorry but there was nothing to search for then.
My apologies - I thought my profile had more info (I don't use blogger =- haven't since '92 when I got my own server)and thought that it would give you (not the readers) my email address which has my full name in it. Obviously it didn't so you had no way of knowing who I was.
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you what I think is going to happen and you can agree or not ;)
The company I work for works very closely with MS on virtualization and in the end I think MS is going to win that ball game. MS Virtual Server is very good and the next iteration looks to be quite awesome from what the techs tell me. Gates, and I agree with him as do many in the industry, thinks that within five to ten years nearly all servers will be virtualized. So I think what you are going to see is powerful hardware nodes running the latest version of MS Virtual server (which also is free) and in the individual virtual environments on that node you are going to see a wide variety of OS and web server software. You'll see different flavors of LAMP and BSD running in environments alongside IIS and server 2008 or whatever the latest version is.
MS has found a way to survive against open source by going part way there themselves (free software but not opening the code base)